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Tuesday, March 7, 2017

Review of "Super Forecasting" (Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner)

In ‘Super Forecasting,’ the attentive reader is required to look at how he or she thinks, and this a credit to the authors.  I might have appreciated the book much more if I had a better understanding of probability.  Even with my limited knowledge, I could see the wisdom as well as the intriguing possibilities of how the teams of forecasters worked.
            I also developed a new appreciation for probability.  Previously, I would scoff at someone who said something was 70% likely to happen.  Either it, whatever “it” refers to, happens or it doesn’t happen.  The authors call this the “wrong-side-of-maybe” thinking and they lay out the dangerous implications of falling for such a binary worldview as this. 
            For this lesson and many others, I highly recommend this book.  It forces me to examine how I think.  Along with “Leaders Always Eat Last” (Sinek), “The Whole Brained Child” (Siegel), and “Finding God in the Waves” (McArgue), this books forces me to reconsider my approach to problems and my overall worldview.  I am going to follow up by registering with the good judgment project website and see if I can learn how to be a good forecaster.

Disclaimer - I received this book for free from WaterBrook Multnomah Publishing Group for this review.

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