In ‘Super
Forecasting,’ the attentive reader is required to look at how he or she thinks,
and this a credit to the authors. I
might have appreciated the book much more if I had a better understanding of
probability. Even with my limited
knowledge, I could see the wisdom as well as the intriguing possibilities of
how the teams of forecasters worked.
I also developed a new appreciation
for probability. Previously, I would
scoff at someone who said something was 70% likely to happen. Either it, whatever “it” refers to, happens
or it doesn’t happen. The authors call
this the “wrong-side-of-maybe” thinking and they lay out the dangerous implications
of falling for such a binary worldview as this.
For this lesson and many others, I
highly recommend this book. It forces me
to examine how I think. Along with “Leaders
Always Eat Last” (Sinek), “The Whole Brained Child” (Siegel), and “Finding God
in the Waves” (McArgue), this books forces me to reconsider my approach to
problems and my overall worldview. I am
going to follow up by registering with the good judgment project website and
see if I can learn how to be a good forecaster.
Disclaimer - I received this book
for free from WaterBrook Multnomah Publishing Group for this review.
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